What Bosnia’s Recovery Can Teach Ukraine

Almost 30 years ago, the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina ended with the Dayton Peace Agreement. Since then, the country has achieved macroeconomic stabilization and managed to rebuild its infrastructure. However, population losses caused by war, displacement and labour migration have not been reversed, and GDP only returned to pre-war levels more than three decades later.

In their study “Post-war Reconstruction in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Lessons for Ukraine” Vesna Bojicic-Dzelilovic and Fikret Causevic analyse what worked and what didn’t in Bosnia’s post-war recovery. The paper offers key insights for Ukraine, stressing the importance of early and targeted support for existing domestic industries, of coherent international assistance adapted to local context, and of building a consensus on economic policy strategy of national elites to ensure inclusive and sustained development. For the European Union, it shows the dangers of full trade liberalisation coming too early for candidate countries, and highlights the chances of integrating Ukrainian and Bosnian companies into European value chains.

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